The market is currently in a neutral to bullish regime, characterized by modest breadth expansion and resilient underlying dynamics. With 55.4% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and a positive advance/decline ratio of 1.37, the market shows incremental strength. The VIX at 16.9 indicates low volatility, suggesting investor complacency. SPY trading near flat relative to moving averages (-0.3% vs 20 SMA) signals consolidation, while the HYG/TLT ratio of 0.916 points to stable risk appetite. The key tension lies between moderate breadth participation and sustained price levels, suggesting a cautious but constructive market environment that favors selective, quality stock selection.
Key Metrics
Advance/Decline Ratio
1.37
280 adv / 205 dec
A/D Line
6957
Cumulative net advances
% Above 50 SMA
56.9%
20 SMA: 55.4% | 200 SMA: 65.9%
New Highs - Lows
23
24 highs / 1 lows
McClellan Oscillator
-3.8
Summation: 223
Breadth Thrust
0.500
>0.615 = bullish thrust
Volume Ratio
1.66
Up vol / Down vol
Total Stocks
487
In analysis universe
Market Indicators
VIX
16.87
Regime: NORMAL | 20d MA: 17.5
SPY
$676.47
vs 50 SMA: +0.2%
QQQ
$609.11
5d chg: -2.6%
IWM (Small Cap)
$248.71
IWM/SPY: 0.368
VXN (NASDAQ Vol)
20.72
VIX-VXN Spread: -3.8
Risk Sentiment
NEUTRAL
HYG/TLT: 0.916
Market Regime
BULLISH
SPY 5d: -1.8%
Major Indices (60 days)
SPY - S&P 500 ETF
🤖 AI Analysis
Index performance reveals a nuanced leadership rotation: SPY (+0.2% vs 50 SMA) demonstrates more stability compared to QQQ (-0.7% vs 50 SMA) and IWM (-3.5% 5d change). The IWM/SPY ratio of 0.368 indicates continued large-cap preference, with small-caps underperforming. This suggests investors are maintaining a defensive posture, prioritizing quality and liquidity over speculative small-cap exposure.
QQQ - NASDAQ 100 ETF
📊 QQQ Analysis
Current: $609.11
vs 20 SMA: -0.8%
vs 50 SMA: -0.7%
5-day change: -2.6%
1-day change: +1.4%
QQQ tracks NASDAQ 100 - heavy tech weighting
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF
📊 IWM Analysis
Current: $248.71
vs 20 SMA: +0.4%
vs 50 SMA: +1.4%
IWM/SPY Ratio: 0.368
5-day change: -3.5%
Small caps leading = risk-on
Small caps lagging = risk-off
VIX - CBOE Volatility Index
🤖 AI Analysis
The VIX at 16.9 remains in the 'normal' regime, slightly below its 20-day moving average of 17.5. The VIX-VXN spread of -3.8 reveals tech sectors experiencing marginally higher fear compared to the broader market. This subtle volatility skew suggests potential sector rotation and hesitation among tech investors, warranting careful risk management and potential hedging strategies.
VXN - CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index
📊 VXN Analysis
Current: 20.7 (NORMAL)
20d MA: 22.1 | 50d MA: 23.1
VIX-VXN Spread: -3.8
• VXN > VIX: Tech more volatile than broad market
• VXN < VIX: Broad market more concerned
• Large spread divergence often signals rotation
VXN tracks NASDAQ 100 implied volatility
Breadth Trends (60 days)
% of Stocks Above Moving Averages
🤖 AI Analysis
Moving average positioning reveals moderate bullish sentiment: 55.4% above 20 SMA, 56.9% above 50 SMA, and 65.9% above 200 SMA. The 50 SMA trend of 24.9% indicates gradual, sustainable upward momentum without excessive overextension.
Advance/Decline Line
🤖 AI Analysis
The advance/decline metrics show constructive participation, with 280 advances versus 205 declines and an A/D ratio of 1.37. The 5-day A/D line trend of -157 indicates short-term consolidation, suggesting the market is digesting recent gains and preparing for potential directional movement.
Advance/Decline Ratio
📊 Quick Reference
• Ratio > 1.0 = More advances than declines (bullish)
• Ratio < 1.0 = More declines than advances (bearish)
• Extreme readings (>2.0 or <0.5) often precede reversals
• Watch for divergences between A/D ratio and price
52-Week New Highs vs New Lows
🤖 AI Analysis
New highs/lows data is exceptionally bullish, with 24 new highs versus just 1 new low. The 20-day average high-low difference of 32 signals strong underlying strength and selective leadership across sectors.
Momentum Indicators
McClellan Oscillator (Short-term Momentum)
🤖 AI Analysis
The McClellan Oscillator at -3.8 with a 5-day trend of -13.6 suggests mild short-term breadth contraction. This indicates a potential short-term consolidation or minor pullback before renewed upward momentum.
McClellan Summation Index (Intermediate-term)
🤖 AI Analysis
The McClellan Summation Index of 223 with a 20-day change of 162 demonstrates robust intermediate-term momentum, confirming the market's underlying strength and potential for continued advancement.
Breadth Thrust Indicator
🤖 AI Analysis
The breadth thrust indicator at 0.500 (versus signal threshold of 0.615) suggests the market is not currently experiencing a powerful broad-based momentum event. This implies measured, stock-specific opportunities rather than widespread market expansion.
Volume Analysis
Up/Down Volume Ratio
🤖 AI Analysis
Volume dynamics show an up/down ratio of 1.66, indicating moderate buying conviction. The 5-day average of 0.87 suggests incremental, controlled capital deployment rather than aggressive institutional accumulation.